2013 NCAA Tournament: South Region Preview

When a team is called the worst team in school history by its own coach just a month before the NCAA tournament, that usually isn’t good news. But for Kansas, it was just a speed bump on their way to a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s exactly how the college basketball season went this year, no team could maintain the top position in the polls for very long and major upsets occurred weekly. If the tournament is anything like the regular season, then every team is on upset watch, and any team could make a Cinderella run. This makes for an exciting tournament, but it might leave you double and triple guessing your picks, and then getting it all wrong anyways. Here’s a preview and predictions of the South Region.

Round of 64

1) Kansas vs. 16) Western Kentucky

The odds of Western Kentucky actually winning are extremely low and anyone who picks them is just hoping to get really lucky (and be able to gloat about picking the first ever 16 to beat a 1), but that doesn’t mean Kansas can roll out of bed and play this game. The Hilltoppers won 4 games in 4 days to make the tournament and the last 3 wins were by a single basket each, so they are playing their best basketball now. But they’re going to need to step up to another level if they want to compete with Kansas. The Jayhawks have gone 10-1 since that 3 game skid in February and have the makings of a championship caliber team. Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey are the go to players for Kansas and will have no problem with Western Kentucky.

Winner: Kansas

8) North Carolina vs. 9) Villanova 

North Carolina is another team that has played much better lately and for that reason is a hot pick in this game. But many people forget that UNC is 2-8 against teams that made the NCAA tournament and has yet to prove itself against stronger competition. But this game all depends on which Villanova team comes to play, the one that has beaten Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, and Syracuse, or the one that lost to Seton Hall and Columbia. The Wildcats shooting from the outside is an X factor, but their lack of a scorer inside may be what kills them. They won’t beat UNC in a fast pace shootout.

Winner: UNC

5) VCU vs. 12) Akron

Shaka Smart and VCU are no strangers to the tournament and even the Final Four, except this year they are on everyone’s radar. Akron, however, is not and could pull a VCU type upset if the Rams look ahead to a showdown with Michigan. But the loss of starting PG Alex Abreu is bad news for Akron, especially against a VCU team that forces you to control and be smart with the ball. VCU made a run a few years ago by shooting threes and playing solid defense, the recipe is the same and the result should be at least a first round win.

Winner: VCU

4) Michigan vs. 13) South Dakota State

Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. combine to make up one of the most explosive back courts in this tournament and in all of college basketball. Playing in the toughest conference in the country clearly slowed them down after their 16-0 start, but Michigan’s talent could produce a Final Four squad. SD State’s do it all star is Nate Wolters, averaging over 20-5-5 on the season, and players like him can become household names in this tournament (see: Steph Curry). Michigan isn’t the toughest team on defense and could be in for a surprise if they look past their first round opponent.

Winner: Michigan

6) UCLA vs. 11) Minnesota

UCLA is a team that relies heavily on the scoring ability of Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams because of its’ lack of 3’s and rebounds. Taking Jordan Adams out of the equation because of injury could result in a stagnant offense for the Bruins unless their bench players can fill the hole that he leaves. Luckily for UCLA, they match up against Minnesota, a team that without a win over Indiana a few weeks ago, might not be in the NCAA tournament. Minnesota was 15-1 and ranked in the top 10 before stumbling and bumbling their way to an 11 seed. An upset could be in the works here just because of Minnesota’s talent, but either way this looks to be an underwhelming and possibly ugly game.

Winner: Minnesota

3) Florida vs. 14) Northwestern State

The Demons led all of D-1 with 81.0 PPG this season and they have an extremely deep bench (10 guys average over 15 min. a game), which is reason enough for Billy Donovan and Florida to focus in on this match-up. However, this is a team that does not shoot the 3 ball well and hasn’t beaten a formidable opponent all season. Florida should be able to get stops defensively and open up a lead, but if it is a close game down the stretch that could mean trouble, the Gators are 0-6 in games decided by less then 10 points. A veteran starting group and energy players of the bench should push through in this one, but need to find a rhythm at the end of games if the want to reach the later rounds.

Winner: Florida

7) San Diego St vs. 10) Oklahoma

San Diego St. is a defensive minded team that relies on Jamaal Franklin to create points on the offensive end. Lacking the ability to find shots late in the game may bite the Aztecs if they are in a close game late. Oklahoma is led by three senior starters and rarely turns the ball over, that’s a solid formula for success in a match up that could go either way. The Sooners lost their last two games of the season though, so they need to wipe that from their memory to move on.

Winner: Oklahoma

2) Georgetown vs. 15) Florida Gulf Coast 

Don’t count out any #15 seed this year, after Lehigh and Norfolk State’s upsets last season. But with that being said, Florida Gulf Coast would have to play unbelievably to take down Georgetown and Otto Porter. Keep in mind that FGC did beat Miami in November. On the other side of the coin, the Hoyas have been one of the best teams in the country of late and are thinking Final Four and possibly even National Championship. Finding consistency around Porter is key, but if they can get hot, they’ll be tough to stop.

Winner: Georgetown

Players to Watch

Otto Porter- Georgetown:

The Big East POY can do it all, and has for Georgetown. He averages 16.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG, while shooting .489 FG% and .427 3P% and is the leader on the court. Similar situation to Kemba Walker and UConn a few years ago, the Hoyas with go as far as Porter takes them.

Trey Burke- Michigan:

The South region features two of the front-runners for National POY in Porter and Trey Burke. Burke averages 19.2 PPG and 6.7 APG and shoots .479% from the field. His explosiveness and play making ability has been fun to watch all year and could translate into wins for Michigan.

Erik Murphy/Mike Rosario/Kenny Boynton- Florida:

Florida is one of the most talented teams in the country and could go on to win this tournament. BUT that will not happen unless one of these three players becomes a go to scorer for Billy Donovan. Close games have been Florida’s Achilles heel this season and unless they figure out how to play well down the stretch, they’ll be packing their bags early.

Upset Special? 

I’m all for the underdog and love to see a surprise team win a few games, but I’m not picking any major upsets in this region. The top four teams have all avoided bad losses this season (for the most part) and Akron just doesn’t fit the bill. I do like Minnesota and Oklahoma as the #10 and #11 seeds to advance but if there is a major upset in the South, I bet it’s NW State over Florida.

Regional Champ

My pick is Georgetown in the South. Kansas played in a weakened Big 12 and showed some serious weaknesses earlier this season and I think Michigan-Kansas will be a pretty even game (barring an upset). Don’t be surprised if Michigan gets to the Elite 8 and plays Georgetown. I just don’t believe in Florida’s ability to win tight games after watching them all season and think the Hoyas will march on to Atlanta.

2013 SEC Tournament Preview

1st Round Games

#11 Texas A&M (17-14, 7-11) vs. #14 Auburn (9-22, 3-15) Wednesday @ 7:30

These teams are playing in the first round for a reason and none of these teams are expected to win more than once in this tournament. Texas A&M would play Missouri in the next round, a team they upset by 2 points on February 7th, but another win in the tournament would be surprising.

#12 South Carolina (14-17, 4-14) vs. #13 Mississippi State (9-21, 4-14) Wednesday @ 10

South Carolina and Mississippi State played two close games and split the season series, this game is the more evenly matched of the two first round match ups. The winner moves on to play on Thursday against Tennessee

2nd Round Games

#8 Georgia (15-16, 9-9) vs. #9 LSU (18-11, 9-9) Thursday @ 1

Georgia won this tournament in 2008 with a record of 13-16 in the regular season, another run like that is not out of question. They beat LSU the only time they met up this year and have played well of late, beating Tennessee and Kentucky and loosing by 3 to Alabama so far this month. LSU started conference play 1-5 but turned things around and could also make some noise. Florida awaits, and a win against the #1 seed would certainly carry a huge wave of momentum.

#5 Tennessee (19-11, 11-7) vs. #12/13 Winner Thursday @ 3:30

Tennessee should get by South Carolina or Mississippi State and move on to face Alabama in the quarterfinals. They are 8-1 since February 10th and  are one of  5 SEC teams sitting on the bubble. They have momentum but they will need to come to play in this game and against Alabama as long as they are not upset.

#7 Arkansas (19-12, 10-8) vs. #10 Vanderbilt (14-16, 8-10) Thursday @ 7:30

Vanderbilt had a down year this year but they still are the SEC champions until it’s taken away from them. Although it’s unlikely, Kevin Stalling’s squad will do everything in their power to defend their crown. Arkansas is the first team in the way, but who knows what Razorback team we’ll see. The one the beat Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee or the one that lost to LSU, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.  Whoever comes out on top has a date with Kentucky 24 hours later.

#6 Missouri (22-9, 11-7) vs. #11/14 Winner Thursday @ 10

Missouri is the 6 seed in the SEC tournament but it is considered locked into the NCAA tournament, unlike teams 2-5 in the SEC. A strong performance in Nashville this week will improve their seeding and create momentum. A likely match up with Texas A&M shouldn’t be overlooked though, the Tigers lost 70-68 in their first match up. If Missouri does win that game, they would probably be the favorite against Ole Miss, despite it being a 3 vs. 6 match-up.

Missouri and All-SEC Guard Phil Pressey

Top 4 Seeds

#4 Alabama (20-11, 12-6) 

Teams seeded 2-6 all finished within one game of each in the SEC, but that turned out to be very important because teams 1-4 all received double byes. Alabama is another team that has work to do to get into the field of 68 and will play a must win game against Tennessee (if they win). As conference championships play out, the bubble could shrink, which would be bad news for Alabama.

# 3 Ole Miss (23-8, 12-6) 

Ole Miss played a very weak schedule, especially non-conference, which will work against them as the tournament committee gathers. They could certainly patch up their resume with another win over Missouri. That win earlier in the season is the only victory over a Top 50 team all season for Ole Miss, so although their record is impressive, their resume isn’t as convincing.

#2 Kentucky (21-10, 12-6) 

One of the most interesting decisions to be made next Sunday is whether Kentucky is in or out. The defending champs started the season inside the Top 5 in most polls and have not lived up to those expectations. But beating Florida in the last game of the regular season was huge for the Wildcats, both as far as momentum and seeding. Don’t be surprised if Kentucky meets Florida again with the SEC Championship on the line.

#1 Florida (24-6, 14-4)

A few weeks ago, it was not inconceivable that Florida would be the only team from the SEC in the NCAA Tournament. Although that’s extremely unlikely now, it goes to show that Florida was really all alone at the top this season. The Gators were as high as #2 in the country this season but have gone 2-2 over the last couple of weeks. Anyone could get hot and win the national championship, especially this season, but Florida needs to play well in this tournament and shake the problems they’ve had lately.

Florida Gator and All-SEC 2nd Team Player Patrick Young

5 SEC Basketball Predictions

Florida Gator- Patric Young

If you think the SEC is in the bag for Florida, think again. Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Missouri have all had their troubles this season but they are still very much alive to win the SEC in the regular season and in the tournament. There’s also some dark horse teams and talented players to look out for. Here’s 5 predictions for the SEC for the rest of the season.

1) Kentucky will grow up

The Wildcats have 5 players who are in double digit scoring and have shown streaks of being a very good team. John Calipari is a very good coach and has the talent on his roster to be a serious threat in the SEC. Expect the Wildcats to play well down the stretch and make a run in the SEC tournament.

2) Missouri will continue to beat itself

Missouri has a boatload of talent but can’t seem to find an identity on offense or buckle down on defense. Phil Pressey is not a SG and needs to be a distributor instead of continuing to shoot despite a .298 3P% and .366 FG%. The Tigers have potential and guys like Laurence Bowers and Jabari Brown could lead a run in the SEC and NCAA tournaments but Missouri hasn’t and might never capitalize on that potential.

Mississippi’s Marshall Henderson

3) Marshall Henderson and Ole Miss are the real deal

Marshall Henderson is lighting it up in his first season at Ole Miss and has averaged almost 20 points a game. Murphy Holloway is averaging a double double and contributions from Srs. Reginald Buckner and Nick Williams have helped the Rebels jump out to a 6-1 start in the SEC. They face a huge task today and will try to take down a red hot Florida team in a Top 25 SEC showdown.

4) 4 SEC teams will make the NCAA Tournament

Unless Alabama, Tennessee, or Texas A&M turns it around and makes a run in the SEC there will be no more than 4 SEC teams playing in the Big Dance. Ole Miss and Missouri (if they get in) will have trouble making it to the Sweet 16 but both Florida and Kentucky are legitimate title contenders. Florida has looked like the best team in the country lately and Kentucky has the talent to make a run.

5) Florida will win the SEC

Florida hasn’t been challenged in SEC play yet, winning by at least 17 in all 7 games but Ole Miss poses their largest test yet. The way Florida is going on offense and defense will be tough to stop however, and Florida has established itself as the best team in the SEC. The Gators will come away with both the regular season and tournament championships and make a run into March…and maybe April.

Mid-season SEC Basketball Outlook

Conference play is here and the SEC Championship race will start to take shape. Florida is the current favorite but Missouri and Kentucky are contenders and dark horse teams like Tennessee and Ole Miss could compete in Atlanta. A lot will happen between now and March but here’s a mid-season look at the SEC.

Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel

The Gators are coming off an Elite 8 performance last season and lost only two key players from that team. Patric Young is extremely talented inside and is averaging almost 11 points and 7 rebounds and has been a huge defensive presence. Florida has been strong on the defensive side and the key to their offensive success is Kenny Boynton. He exploded for 28 points against Yale and if he can keep that up Florida will be tough to beat.

Missouri has been the #1 rebounding team in the country this season and Phil Pressey has been the best player in the SEC to this point. The point guard is one of five Tigers averaging double digits in scoring which is a very good sign. The Achilles heel for Missouri is their defense, they gave up 97 points in OT to UCLA and need to be able to get stops.

As always, Kentucky is inexperienced, but that didn’t stop them last year. John Calipari is no stranger from turning a talented group of youngsters into a team that’s a threat down the stretch. But for now they’re a work in progress and haven’t found their offensive identity. The Wildcats have potential and are very athletic but are not on the same level as last year’s team.

Another team that has struggled on offense this season is the Tennessee Volunteers. Also like Kentucky, the potential for success is there. Their best player, Trae Golden, hasn’t shot the ball well but if he finds his stroke things could turnaround. Watch out for Tennessee as a surprise in the SEC.

Ole Miss has been, for the large part, untested this season but they are 11-2 and average 83 points a game. They will be forced to play a challenging January schedule and their performance this month will gauge where they are as a team and whether or not they’re a serious threat in the SEC.

The SEC has the potential to have 7 or 8 teams competing in the NCAA tournament in March. Obviously, the 5 teams above are capable of reaching the tournament but they are not alone. Look for Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU, and/or South Carolina to be joining them if they make it through the SEC schedule.

So buckle down folks, it’ll be a fun few months in the college basketball world and we’ll see what comes of the SEC this season.